Travis Kelce’s Slow Start to the 2024 NFL Season Explained

A Statistical Explainer of Travis Kelce s Slow Start to the 2024 Season

Travis Kelce.
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Travis Kelce’s underwhelming start to the 2024 season has turned from a whisper into a roar.

Through the first three games of the season, the Kansas City Chiefs tight end has caught only eight passes for a total of 69 yards. Making matters worse, Kelce has yet to score a touchdown.

It’s been a befuddling trio of games for Kelce, 34, widely regarded as one of the best tight ends in NFL history, who signed a monster two-year, $34.5 million contract extension with the Chiefs in April. 

So, what’s going on?

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Related: Every Time Taylor Swift Attended an NFL Game to Cheer for Travis Kelce

Taylor Swift has loved being the girl in the bleachers amid her blossoming romance with Travis Kelce. Swift made her first appearance at a Kansas City Chiefs game in September 2023, watching them defeat the Chicago Bears from the Kelce family’s private suite. After cheering alongside the tight end’s mom, Donna Kelce, she and Travis […]

To understand why Kelce’s start has been such a hot topic — and such a point of contention for some fantasy football owners — it’s important to take a look back at why expectations are so high for the nine-time Pro Bowler, and why his coaches and teammates have been forced to weigh in.

For a full breakdown on the historical significance of Kelce’s start, keep scrolling.

Why Has Travis Kelce’s Bad Start Been Such a Big Deal?

A Statistical Explainer of Travis Kelce s Slow Start to the 2024 Season

Travis Kelce.
Jamie Squire/Getty Images

For one thing, this is Travis Kelce we’re talking about.

The three-time Super Bowl champion and four-time First Team All-Pro has been as dominant as they come in the NFL over the course of the past decade. 

During the first three games of Kelce’s most productive season in 2022, he amassed 184 receiving yards on 17 receptions on his way to career highs in receptions (110), receiving yards (1,338) and touchdowns (12). 

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Just last year, after missing the first game of the season against the Detroit Lions with a knee injury, Kelce nabbed 155 yards receiving in his first three starts combined. 

At the moment, Kelce is on track to record just over 45 receptions on the season, which would be 22 fewer than his smallest total during his first full season in 2014. His projected season total of 391 receiving yards would also be a career-low by a staggering margin, when he had 862 in 2014. 

Is Travis Kelce’s Dip in Play a New Thing?

A Statistical Explainer of Travis Kelce s Slow Start to the 2024 Season

Travis Kelce.
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Well, kinda.

Kelce did not have a receiving touchdown in the Chiefs’ final six regular season games in 2023, making it nine straight combined games that Kelce hasn’t found the end zone if you include this season.

However, Kelce later turned things on in the playoffs where he earned 355 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs’ four postseason games. 

Kelce’s Week 2 output against the Cincinnati Bengals was alarmingly lackluster, with just one reception for a total of five yards. It marked the first time since September 2018 that Kelce did not have three or more receptions in a game. 

Is Patrick Mahomes Still Trying to Throw to Travis Kelce?

Yes and no. 

Through the first three games, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has targeted Kelce only 12 times with a 66 percent success rate. 

In comparison, Mahomes targeted Kelce an average of 7.5 times per regular season game in 2023 and an average of 8.9 times per game in 2022. 

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Travis Kelce hasn’t shied away from giving girlfriend Taylor Swift her flowers on his podcast. The couple’s romance began shortly after the first time Travis mentioned the pop star on the “New Heights” podcast, which he cohosts with brother Jason Kelce. In July 2023, Travis recalled how he saw Swift perform at the Arrowhead Stadium […]

There are a myriad of reasons to explain why Kelce isn’t being targeted quite as much, but the simplest answer is that teams are guarding Kelce like their lives depend on it. 

“The respect factor they have for Travis is just unreal,” Mahomes, 29, said Sunday, September 22 after the Chiefs’ 22-17 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. “It’s well-deserved. But I mean, we’re calling a lot of plays for Travis and it’s like two or three people are going to him.”

What Has Travis Kelce Said About His Slow Start?

A Statistical Explainer of Travis Kelce s Slow Start to the 2024 Season

Travis Kelce.
Cooper Neill/Getty Images

For the time being, Kelce has mostly taken everything in stride

“I stopped caring about stats about four or five years ago,” he told brother Jason Kelce on their “New Heights” podcast September 18. “I just went out there and started to play free and play for my guys. Sure enough, I think that’s the better mentality. You think about it more play by play and what your job is on that specific play.”

Kelce continued, “For whatever reason, these past two games it hasn’t gone that way for me. That’s football, man. I’m not about to sit here and get frustrated about it. I used to get really, really pissed off and almost lose my cool a lot of the time from not having that success knowing I demand that out of myself. I just like to play the game to such a high level of accountability that it’s tough for me to deal with me being mediocre or having stats that represent that.”

Still, that team-first mentality appeared to take a minor backseat as the clock winded down against the Falcons on Sunday, when NBC’s Sunday Night Football cameras caught Kelce looking frustrated and despondent on the sidelines.

During the broadcast, veteran analyst Cris Collinsworth expressed disbelief at Kelce’s lack of production. 

“I’m just flabbergasted,” Collinsworth said in the waning moments of the first half. “I mean, one game, big deal. Two games, alright. This is the third game now where we have not seen the magic of Mahomes and Kelce. And I can’t really explain that one.”

What Has the Chiefs’ Coaching Staff Said About Travis Kelce’s Start?

A Statistical Explainer of Travis Kelce s Slow Start to the 2024 Season

Travis Kelce.
Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Following the win against the Bengals in Week 2, Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy said Kelce has earned the patience of eager football fans. 

“He knows who he is,” Nagy, 46, said during a press conference Thursday, September 19. “We know who he is. When you have that, it’s important to know that.”

Nagy added, “It’s just a matter of time.”

Is Taylor Swift Responsible for Travis Kelce’s Subpar Play?

No, that’s not how it works. 

Who Do the Kansas City Chiefs Play Next?

The Chiefs return to action on Sunday, September 29 against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers (2-1) at Inglewood’s SoFi Stadium. 

After a jaunt to the west coast, Kelce and the squad return home to take on the New Orleans Saints on Monday, October 7.

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